Tag: uk

Video: the radical right & 4 critical elections in Western Europe in 2017

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AfD results in 2017 federal election in Germany (map of districts)

As (West) European election years go, 2017 was quite something. The French party system changed beyond recognition. The radical right entered Germany’s national parliament for the first time. UKIP was wiped out, but May still managed to lose a comfortable majority. And very high fragmentation resulted in a coalition that looks improbable even by Dutch standards.

SCoRE is our multinational project that explores the link between local and regional living conditions on the one hand and radical right attitudes and behaviours in these four countries on the other. Sometimes, serendipity is really a thing. Because we had our individual-level data collection scheduled for this year anyway, we gained some unique insights into all four big Western European elections of 2017.

Update
The German chunk of this research now forms the base of an open access journal article. Click on the DOI to read it!

  • Arzheimer, Kai and Theresa Bernemann. “‘Place’ Does Matter for Populist Radical Right Sentiment, but How? Evidence from Germany.” European Political Science Review 16.2 (2024): 167-186. doi:10.1017/S1755773923000279
    [BibTeX] [Abstract] [HTML]

    The notion of ‘place’ has become a central concern in research on the populist radical right (PRR), but scholars seem to have different things in mind when talking about how geography affects individual political attitudes. In our paper, we therefore aim to structure the debate on the impact of place and to understand exactly how place affects PRR attitudes (nativism, right-wing authoritarianism, and populism). Conceptually, we identify four potentially relevant aspects of ‘place’ that underpin much of the current literature: place-related attitudes (localism and resentment), place-specific living conditions, socio-demographic composition, and characteristics unique to a particular place, i.e., its local history and culture. We also discuss how these aspects are related and how they may interact. Empirically, we assess the relative importance of these four aspects of place for PRR sentiment in Germany, a country that is particularly well suited to this type of analysis. Using fine-grained geocoded survey data collected prior to the 2017 election, we find that (1) there is considerable spatial variation and clustering in PRR attitudes, (2) a place’s socio-demographic composition and (3) place resentment account for much of this, while (4) localism has weaker effects. We find (5) no relevant interaction between localism and place resentment, (6) no substantial evidence that mediation through place-related attitudes leads to an underestimation of the other aspects, and (7) no evidence for effects of the unique culture or history of the places we studied. Moreover, (8) location in the former GDR still has a substantial impact, whereas (9) other place-specific conditions (deprivation, demographic decline, migration, rurality) that could be addressed by policy interventions have no or rather weak effects. We conclude that PRR sentiment in ‘places that don’t matter’ results also, though by no means exclusively, from a lack of recognition.

    @Article{arzheimer-bernemann-2023,
author = {Arzheimer, Kai and Bernemann, Theresa},
title = {'Place' Does Matter for Populist Radical Right Sentiment, but How?
Evidence from Germany},
journal = {European Political Science Review},
year = 2024,
volume = {16},
number = {2},
pages = {167-186},
abstract = {The notion of 'place' has become a central concern in research on
the populist radical right (PRR), but scholars seem to have
different things in mind when talking about how geography affects
individual political attitudes. In our paper, we therefore aim to
structure the debate on the impact of place and to understand
exactly how place affects PRR attitudes (nativism, right-wing
authoritarianism, and populism). Conceptually, we identify four
potentially relevant aspects of 'place' that underpin much of the
current literature: place-related attitudes (localism and
resentment), place-specific living conditions, socio-demographic
composition, and characteristics unique to a particular place,
i.e., its local history and culture. We also discuss how these
aspects are related and how they may interact. Empirically, we
assess the relative importance of these four aspects of place for
PRR sentiment in Germany, a country that is particularly well
suited to this type of analysis. Using fine-grained geocoded survey
data collected prior to the 2017 election, we find that (1) there
is considerable spatial variation and clustering in PRR attitudes,
(2) a place's socio-demographic composition and (3) place
resentment account for much of this, while (4) localism has weaker
effects. We find (5) no relevant interaction between localism and
place resentment, (6) no substantial evidence that mediation
through place-related attitudes leads to an underestimation of the
other aspects, and (7) no evidence for effects of the unique
culture or history of the places we studied. Moreover, (8) location
in the former GDR still has a substantial impact, whereas (9) other
place-specific conditions (deprivation, demographic decline,
migration, rurality) that could be addressed by policy
interventions have no or rather weak effects. We conclude that PRR
sentiment in 'places that don't matter' results also, though by no
means exclusively, from a lack of recognition.},
html = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/european-political-science-review/article/place-does-matter-for-populist-radical-right-sentiment-but-how-evidence-from-germany/7C639AAC5F6B1BC2F6324F7D57136827},
pdf = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/7C639AAC5F6B1BC2F6324F7D57136827/S1755773923000279a.pdf/place-does-matter-for-populist-radical-right-sentiment-but-how-evidence-from-germany.pdf},
doi = {10.1017/S1755773923000279}
}

Accordingly, my colleagues have written up reports for France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK, complete with beautiful maps. Who does not like maps?

Four 2017 elections that changed West European Politics: France, Germany, the Netherlands & the UK
Watch this video on YouTube.

But perhaps you’re pressed for time or not sure if you really want to read four (fairly short) reports? With the European Parliamentary elections on the horizon, I made a short explainer/teaser video about them to bring you up to speed in just over two minutes. I have a hunch that afterwards, you will want to read all four pieces.

Italy, the UK, Sweden, and Russia paying for AfD flights: four European crisis links I liked

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Italy, the UK, Sweden, and Russia paying for AfD flights: four European crisis links I liked 1

Why did the Italian President use a half-forgotten constitutional power to veto Paolo Savona’s appointment as finance minister? Here is why. FAZ: Russia paid 25,000 Euro charter for a private plane for former leader Petry & two other AfD politicians’ visit An unnamed EU official said that the UK’s Brexit negotiators are chasing a fantasy.…

Elections in Europe in 2017: four reports

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Elections in Europe: great expectations. [caption id="attachment_28012" align="alignright" width="300"] Source: Evans & Ivaldi, SCoRE project[/caption] 2017 was a year of high-profile national elections in Europe, in which the Radical Right was expected to do particularly well. Balanced and neutral as ever, the Express claimed that the votes in France, Germany, and the Netherlands could DESTROY…

Pooling Polish polls, British parties and the EU, white nationalists, and the Radical Right’s gendered policy agendas: four links I liked

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Commonwealth Day?

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Commonwealth Day? 3

Last Monday was Commonwealth Day, the date formerly known as Empire Day. I know this because I heard some claptrap on the BBC about 2.5 billion hearts beating as one. All eyes on London etc. Otherwise I would not have known. Let me provide some context for this. At the moment, I live in downtown…

Brexit : What I learned from watching BBC News for 48 hours straight

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So Britain has voted for Leave. The BBC is providing coverage 24/7. And the most amazing thing? To me,  it is the deafening silence from the Conservative leadership and the Leave campaign.
The country has just held what might be the most important vote in a generation or more. Britain is divided against itself in all sorts of ways. The rest of Europe is jumping up and down excitedly. Foreign ministers and PMs across the continent try to calm down the markets and their people.
Meanwhile in Britain, there is zilch political leadership. No one is outlining any sort of plan. Boris,  the man who has supposedly won the campaign, has not been seen or heard since Friday morning. Cameron is doing business as usual, inspecting the armed forces. The rest of them probably had plans for the weekend, as opposed to plans for carrying out Brexit. For the outsider, it looks once more like bloody amateur night in British politics – a night that might last all summer.

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Political Interest Props Up Partisanship in Wales, Scotland, and England

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Privately, I have referred to this piece as The Un-Dead Article, the Paper That Is Never Going Be Published, The Cursed Manuscript, or simply as It-Which-Must-Not-Be-Named. But you know, it’s the problem child we love the most. So: Our article “Political interest furthers partisanship in England, Scotland, and Wales” is finally out! If you don’t…

Where candidates live matters to voters, and they show it in their voting

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Where candidates live matters to voters, and they show it in their voting 4

A bit dated now, but still relevant: Showcasing our research at the Democratic Audit: That voters prefer to elect local candidates is a long-held assumption of British politics. Professor Jocelyn Evans’ research has sought to test that assumption. He found that the geographical distance between candidates’ homes and the constituency had a measurable impact on…