Wie gut oder schlecht sind die Erfolgsaussichten von “Alternative für Deutschland”, “Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht” und der Linken bei der bevorstehenden Bundestagswahl? Warum werden diese Parteien überhaupt gewählt, und wie wirkt sich der Wahlkampf, der nun begonnen hat, auf ihre Chance aus? Über diese und andere Fragen konnte ich bei einer gemeinsamen Veranstaltung der Landeszentrale für…
Jürgen P. Lang vom BR hat mit Frank Decker und mir über die Aussichten einer möglichen Parteigründung durch Sahra Wagenknecht gesprochen. Etliche O-Töne haben es in den fertigen Text geschafft. Wichtig ist das “maximal” vor “10-15 Prozent”. https://www.br.de/nachrichten/deutschland-welt/haette-sahra-wagenknecht-erfolg-mit-einer-neuen-partei,TXjzvQk
Here is a new working paper about the disproportionate success of the AfD and the Left in Germany’s eastern states
Mit Dietmar Neuerer vom Handelsblatt habe ich ausführlich über die das Ergebnis der Thüringen-Wahl und die wahrscheinlichen Konsequenzen für die deutsche Politik gesprochen. In der Online-Ausgabe gibt es das Gespräch im vollen Wortlaut. [contentcards url="https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/interview-zur-thueringen-wahl-ungewoehnliche-mehr-parteien-koalitionen-werden-zur-normalitaet-werden/25160996.html" target="_blank"]
LEFT 30.4% AfD 23.5% CDU 22.1% SPD 8.1% GREENS 5.1% FDP 5.1% Source: FGW projection, 8:10pm Why waste my life writing lengthy books that no-one is going to read? Why go through the pain of peer review? Why, in fact, wait for the actual election results to come in? So here is my list on…
In the last couple of weeks, much has been said and written about the turning tide in German public opinion on refugees, the growing rift between Merkel and the CSU, the potential of a back-bench rebellion against the chancellor and party leader etc. But one of the most interesting (in my book) details is buried…
On Friday, the state parliament at Erfurt voted in Bodo Ramelow as Minister-President of Thuringia. He is the first member of the Left party to hold such an office, backed by the first ‘red-red-green’ (Left/SPD/Greens) coalition ever. 25 years after the fall of the wall, that is still a highly controversial constellation. Ramelow has been…
Much merriment in the Eastern state of Thuringia: 25 years after the fall of the wall, the Greens and the SPD in the state parliament are poised to form a coalition with the Left (die Linke), which would give the Left its first minister president ever. What’s the Matter with the Left? Predictably, this is…
The Polls [caption id="attachment_12655" align="alignleft" width="300"] Support for the Major German Parties, Estimates and Predictions (Week 35, 2013)[/caption] Exactly three weeks before the 18th Bundestag election, it’s time for another look at the polls. This weekend brings six new entries: One late result from week 33 that was only published a week ago, three polls…
Last week’s post on Merkel’s very good chances to win a third term created a bit of a stir. This week, I’m back with nine new polls (conducted between August 6 and August 19 by six different companies), which all point into the same direction: The probability of Merkel continuing as chancellor is 98 to 99 per cent.