Just three weeks until the French legislative elections. Get in the mood by listening to this excellent Radikaal Podcast episode with Rainbow Murray.
The year is 2022. For the third time, a Le Pen is proceeding to the run-off for the French presidency. And unlike 2002 (when her father stood) and 2017, Marine Le Pen has a chance to win this time. Without doubt, a Le Pen presidency would upend French, European, and even global politics. This is…
The warning signs have been present for some time. Les Républicains are on the verge of a crackup. Caught between Macron’s LRM and Le Pen’s RN, the party’s electoral space […]
How do people in cities & the countryside react to the presence or absence of immigrants? How does local decline further radical right mobilisation? Are immigrants becoming convenient scapegoats for developments that have nothing to do with them?
Or does the daily interaction between immigrants and the native population foster positive contacts that lead to pro-immigration attitudes? And what role do self-selection of liberal-minded individuals into multi-cultural neighbourhoods on the one hand and “white flight” on the other play?
The notion of ‘place’ has become a central concern in research on the populist radical right (PRR), but scholars seem to have different things in mind when talking about how geography affects individual political attitudes. In our paper, we therefore aim to structure the debate on the impact of place and to understand exactly how place affects PRR attitudes (nativism, right-wing authoritarianism, and populism). Conceptually, we identify four potentially relevant aspects of ‘place’ that underpin much of the current literature: place-related attitudes (localism and resentment), place-specific living conditions, socio-demographic composition, and characteristics unique to a particular place, i.e., its local history and culture. We also discuss how these aspects are related and how they may interact. Empirically, we assess the relative importance of these four aspects of place for PRR sentiment in Germany, a country that is particularly well suited to this type of analysis. Using fine-grained geocoded survey data collected prior to the 2017 election, we find that (1) there is considerable spatial variation and clustering in PRR attitudes, (2) a place’s socio-demographic composition and (3) place resentment account for much of this, while (4) localism has weaker effects. We find (5) no relevant interaction between localism and place resentment, (6) no substantial evidence that mediation through place-related attitudes leads to an underestimation of the other aspects, and (7) no evidence for effects of the unique culture or history of the places we studied. Moreover, (8) location in the former GDR still has a substantial impact, whereas (9) other place-specific conditions (deprivation, demographic decline, migration, rurality) that could be addressed by policy interventions have no or rather weak effects. We conclude that PRR sentiment in ‘places that don’t matter’ results also, though by no means exclusively, from a lack of recognition.
@Article{arzheimer-bernemann-2023,
author = {Arzheimer, Kai and Bernemann, Theresa},
title = {'Place' Does Matter for Populist Radical Right Sentiment, but How?
Evidence from Germany},
journal = {European Political Science Review},
year = 2024,
volume = {16},
number = {2},
pages = {167-186},
abstract = {The notion of 'place' has become a central concern in research on
the populist radical right (PRR), but scholars seem to have
different things in mind when talking about how geography affects
individual political attitudes. In our paper, we therefore aim to
structure the debate on the impact of place and to understand
exactly how place affects PRR attitudes (nativism, right-wing
authoritarianism, and populism). Conceptually, we identify four
potentially relevant aspects of 'place' that underpin much of the
current literature: place-related attitudes (localism and
resentment), place-specific living conditions, socio-demographic
composition, and characteristics unique to a particular place,
i.e., its local history and culture. We also discuss how these
aspects are related and how they may interact. Empirically, we
assess the relative importance of these four aspects of place for
PRR sentiment in Germany, a country that is particularly well
suited to this type of analysis. Using fine-grained geocoded survey
data collected prior to the 2017 election, we find that (1) there
is considerable spatial variation and clustering in PRR attitudes,
(2) a place's socio-demographic composition and (3) place
resentment account for much of this, while (4) localism has weaker
effects. We find (5) no relevant interaction between localism and
place resentment, (6) no substantial evidence that mediation
through place-related attitudes leads to an underestimation of the
other aspects, and (7) no evidence for effects of the unique
culture or history of the places we studied. Moreover, (8) location
in the former GDR still has a substantial impact, whereas (9) other
place-specific conditions (deprivation, demographic decline,
migration, rurality) that could be addressed by policy
interventions have no or rather weak effects. We conclude that PRR
sentiment in 'places that don't matter' results also, though by no
means exclusively, from a lack of recognition.},
html = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/european-political-science-review/article/place-does-matter-for-populist-radical-right-sentiment-but-how-evidence-from-germany/7C639AAC5F6B1BC2F6324F7D57136827},
pdf = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/7C639AAC5F6B1BC2F6324F7D57136827/S1755773923000279a.pdf/place-does-matter-for-populist-radical-right-sentiment-but-how-evidence-from-germany.pdf},
doi = {10.1017/S1755773923000279}
}These are (I think) fascinating questions that have occupied me for a long time. Thanks to my fantastic colleagues in the SCoRE project, we are a bit closer to answering them. Tomorrow, we’ll present first findings and a couple of policy recommendations at an EPC event in Brussels. If you can’t/couldn’t make it to Belgium, watch this short video and read either the full policy brief or the executive summary.
As (West) European election years go, 2017 was quite something. The French party system changed beyond recognition. The radical right entered Germany’s national parliament for the first time. UKIP was wiped out, but May still managed to lose a comfortable majority. And very high fragmentation resulted in a coalition that looks improbable even by Dutch standards.
SCoRE is our multinational project that explores the link between local and regional living conditions on the one hand and radical right attitudes and behaviours in these four countries on the other. Sometimes, serendipity is really a thing. Because we had our individual-level data collection scheduled for this year anyway, we gained some unique insights into all four big Western European elections of 2017.
The notion of ‘place’ has become a central concern in research on the populist radical right (PRR), but scholars seem to have different things in mind when talking about how geography affects individual political attitudes. In our paper, we therefore aim to structure the debate on the impact of place and to understand exactly how place affects PRR attitudes (nativism, right-wing authoritarianism, and populism). Conceptually, we identify four potentially relevant aspects of ‘place’ that underpin much of the current literature: place-related attitudes (localism and resentment), place-specific living conditions, socio-demographic composition, and characteristics unique to a particular place, i.e., its local history and culture. We also discuss how these aspects are related and how they may interact. Empirically, we assess the relative importance of these four aspects of place for PRR sentiment in Germany, a country that is particularly well suited to this type of analysis. Using fine-grained geocoded survey data collected prior to the 2017 election, we find that (1) there is considerable spatial variation and clustering in PRR attitudes, (2) a place’s socio-demographic composition and (3) place resentment account for much of this, while (4) localism has weaker effects. We find (5) no relevant interaction between localism and place resentment, (6) no substantial evidence that mediation through place-related attitudes leads to an underestimation of the other aspects, and (7) no evidence for effects of the unique culture or history of the places we studied. Moreover, (8) location in the former GDR still has a substantial impact, whereas (9) other place-specific conditions (deprivation, demographic decline, migration, rurality) that could be addressed by policy interventions have no or rather weak effects. We conclude that PRR sentiment in ‘places that don’t matter’ results also, though by no means exclusively, from a lack of recognition.
@Article{arzheimer-bernemann-2023,
author = {Arzheimer, Kai and Bernemann, Theresa},
title = {'Place' Does Matter for Populist Radical Right Sentiment, but How?
Evidence from Germany},
journal = {European Political Science Review},
year = 2024,
volume = {16},
number = {2},
pages = {167-186},
abstract = {The notion of 'place' has become a central concern in research on
the populist radical right (PRR), but scholars seem to have
different things in mind when talking about how geography affects
individual political attitudes. In our paper, we therefore aim to
structure the debate on the impact of place and to understand
exactly how place affects PRR attitudes (nativism, right-wing
authoritarianism, and populism). Conceptually, we identify four
potentially relevant aspects of 'place' that underpin much of the
current literature: place-related attitudes (localism and
resentment), place-specific living conditions, socio-demographic
composition, and characteristics unique to a particular place,
i.e., its local history and culture. We also discuss how these
aspects are related and how they may interact. Empirically, we
assess the relative importance of these four aspects of place for
PRR sentiment in Germany, a country that is particularly well
suited to this type of analysis. Using fine-grained geocoded survey
data collected prior to the 2017 election, we find that (1) there
is considerable spatial variation and clustering in PRR attitudes,
(2) a place's socio-demographic composition and (3) place
resentment account for much of this, while (4) localism has weaker
effects. We find (5) no relevant interaction between localism and
place resentment, (6) no substantial evidence that mediation
through place-related attitudes leads to an underestimation of the
other aspects, and (7) no evidence for effects of the unique
culture or history of the places we studied. Moreover, (8) location
in the former GDR still has a substantial impact, whereas (9) other
place-specific conditions (deprivation, demographic decline,
migration, rurality) that could be addressed by policy
interventions have no or rather weak effects. We conclude that PRR
sentiment in 'places that don't matter' results also, though by no
means exclusively, from a lack of recognition.},
html = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/european-political-science-review/article/place-does-matter-for-populist-radical-right-sentiment-but-how-evidence-from-germany/7C639AAC5F6B1BC2F6324F7D57136827},
pdf = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/7C639AAC5F6B1BC2F6324F7D57136827/S1755773923000279a.pdf/place-does-matter-for-populist-radical-right-sentiment-but-how-evidence-from-germany.pdf},
doi = {10.1017/S1755773923000279}
}Accordingly, my colleagues have written up reports for France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK, complete with beautiful maps. Who does not like maps?
But perhaps you’re pressed for time or not sure if you really want to read four (fairly short) reports? With the European Parliamentary elections on the horizon, I made a short explainer/teaser video about them to bring you up to speed in just over two minutes. I have a hunch that afterwards, you will want to read all four pieces.
Elections in Europe: great expectations. [caption id="attachment_28012" align="alignright" width="300"] Source: Evans & Ivaldi, SCoRE project[/caption] 2017 was a year of high-profile national elections in Europe, in which the Radical Right was expected to do particularly well. Balanced and neutral as ever, the Express claimed that the votes in France, Germany, and the Netherlands could DESTROY…
One of the best (and most depressing) articles on Trump I’ve read so far: “Inside Trump’s Hour-by-Hour Battle for Self-Preservation” If you learnt R as a grad student and if that was some time ago (cough), here is help to get you started on the new ways of doing things in R To further drive…
The right-wing website Breitbart, one of the key allies of the Trump campaign, has told Reuters (link to the article is below) that they want to expand their network to include sites for France and Germany. Breitbart already has a site in the UK, which was an important part of the pro-Brexit network. Allegedly, they have…
In a recent publication (Arzheimer & Evans 2014), we propose a new multinomial measure B for bias in opinion surveys. We also supply a suite of ado files for Stata, surveybias, which plugs into Stata’s framework for estimation programs and provides estimates for this and other measures along with their standard errors. This is the first instalment in a mini series of posts that show how our commands can be used with real-world data. Here, we analyse the quality of a single French pre-election poll.
The first round of the French local elections created quite a stir, and the second wasn’t bad for the anoraks either.