Category: Politics

German Pre-Election Polls: Ms Merkel’s Inevitable Victory?

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In 335 hours, the campaign will be history, and it does not look good for the opposition parties. This round includes five new polls. They bring the probability of a third term for Merkel (aka the Merkel-O-Meter) to a new high of 98.4/99.7 per cent. And the Greens are plummeting a bit. Take the figures with loads of salt, but a change in government looks very unlikely.

German Bundestag Election: Six New Polls, Little Change

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The Polls [caption id="attachment_12655" align="alignleft" width="300"] Support for the Major German Parties, Estimates and Predictions (Week 35, 2013)[/caption] Exactly three weeks before the 18th Bundestag election, it’s time for another look at the polls. This weekend brings six new entries: One late result from week 33 that was only published a week ago, three polls…

We. Liberals. Love. Punctuation. Marks.

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The Liberals Hired an Agency Famous For Their Ability To Split Waffle With Gratuitous Interpunctuation Marks

Responsibility. Performance. Freedom. Pointless. Full. Stops.

It is still silly campaign season in Germany, and the new exhibits just keep coming. Here is another one brought to you by the Party Formerly Known As The Guys Who Almost Stood Up Against The Bloody Spelling Reform Back In The 1990s.

Incidentally, the party also upset a lot of German teachers back in 1968 when they began styling their logo as F.D.P. (a violation of clause 102, subsection 2 of the German spelling code). They shed the dots back in 2001, when a youngish Guido Westerwelle took over and transformed the party. So possibly, just possibly, Regained. Full. Stops. Between. Buzzwords. Are. The. Message.

 

Herbal Remedy: The CDU Take Their Voters Where The Wild Flowers Are

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CDU Campaign Poster (2013)
CDU Campaign Poster (2013)

Here is another gem from my ever growing collection of slightly leftfield campaign posters. While the world is debating Syria, the local CDU chapter and their supporters take a walk to discover local Nutzkräuter (really useful herbs) and Wildkräuter (wild herbs, which must be potentially useful too?). The long-suffering candidate will tag along. Seriously. I bet all this weed is going to tilt the electoral balance.

As an aside, note that all local CDU poster refer to “our” (unser) candidate, presumably because nobody ’round here knows the poor man.

 

Herbal Remedy: The CDU Take Their Voters Where The Wild Flowers Are 1Herbal Remedy: The CDU Take Their Voters Where The Wild Flowers Are 2Herbal Remedy: The CDU Take Their Voters Where The Wild Flowers Are 3Herbal Remedy: The CDU Take Their Voters Where The Wild Flowers Are 4everyThe Free Dictionary: Constituting each and all members of a group without exception. →

Nine New Polls Say Merkel Will Still Be Chancellor in October

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Last week’s post on Merkel’s very good chances to win a third term created a bit of a stir. This week, I’m back with nine new polls (conducted between August 6 and August 19 by six different companies), which all point into the same direction: The probability of Merkel continuing as chancellor is 98 to 99 per cent.

A Very Bavarian Campaign Poster

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2013 campaign poster for the Bavarian (Independence) Party

In my very occasional series on odd campaign posters (are there any others?), here is a particularly fine specimen from Bavaria. The Bayernpartei have their eyes set on (drumroll) Bavarian independence. Their decline began in the 1950s, and they have not been represented in parliament since the 1960s. But that does not distract them from fielding candidates for the upcoming state election, which will be held on September 15, a week before the Bundestag election. They also have wikipedia pages in 18 different languages including Boarisch, the Bavarian dialect. Hey, they even do QR codes.

The ass (sorry) in the left panel is a fairy tale-coded reference to all those German funds going to “Europe”, the slogan in the right panel translates as “Because Bavaria can go it alone”. The Bavarian Lion in the middle is simply your average lion from Bavaria. The party’s projected vote share is about 1 per cent.

Just How Certain is Merkel’s Victory? 96 per cent, give or take

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The Polls Are Noisy Just over five weeks before the Bundestag election, there is much merriment about the current state of play. Support for the Liberals has been consistently below the electoral threshold of  five per cent for months, which implies that Merkel’s coalition would not be able to continue after September. Consequently, everyone is…

Electoral Relay Race: Is Incumbency Advantage Transferable?

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[caption id="attachment_12583" align="alignright" width="225"] Trying to Rub off the Incumbency Advantage from the Old Guy[/caption] The local MP is stepping down after a mere 19 years, and the local mayor wants his job. The outgoing MP won his seat five times in a row on a plurality of the Erststimmen. Structural factors aside, this looks…