The centre-right coalition could have continued with a little help for the FDP. Without doubt, this result is a great triumph for Merkel. But I think the CDU leadership may have outwitted themselves, and the stern, slightly grumpy expression Merkel wore as she left the celebrations seems to confirm it.
I’m guest blogging at the LSE’s excellent EUROPP blog. Somehow the phrase ‘you could have the final word on the campaign’ has gotten to my head. German federal elections preview: the parties and their campaigns | EUROPP.
We’re now officially in the final throes of a very bad case of election fever. Or at least the wonks are. Here is my latest take on the last polls. Bonus round: Why Bavaria does not mean a thing, and how this effects the Merkel-O-Meter.
I’ve been pooling the German pre-election polls since early this summer, and have published preliminary findings since August. People keep asking me the same questions, so here is my FAQ on pooling the polls.
State of Play: From Momentum to Peer’s Finger The German media have been particularly excitable this week. They kicked off with floating the idea that there was momentum in the polls (“SPD up by almost two points!”) and concluded with covering the infamous magazine cover portraying Peer Steinbrück flaunting his finger. Moreover, the idea that…
You may download the code and most recent replication data for my model that estimates latent party support and brazenly predicts the outcome of the 2013 German election from my dataverse. If you spot a bug or some other problem, please drop me a line.
Here is a simple calculation: A professional shooting would take at least 15 minutes per candidate. The CDU is contesting all seats outside Bavaria. That would be 244/4=61 hours. Even if the Chancellor would endorse only those 65 candidates who are running in non-Bavarian districts not won by the CDU in 2009, this would amount to two normal working days. That seems a bit excessive for a woman who is busy ruling the country.
In 335 hours, the campaign will be history, and it does not look good for the opposition parties. This round includes five new polls. They bring the probability of a third term for Merkel (aka the Merkel-O-Meter) to a new high of 98.4/99.7 per cent. And the Greens are plummeting a bit. Take the figures with loads of salt, but a change in government looks very unlikely.
[caption id="attachment_12671" align="alignleft" width="300"] Studying the Impact of Electoral Systems. Rather Remarkable Psychological and Mechanical Effects[/caption] During a momentary lapse of reason, Liz Carter and I decided to re-run our 2009 section on the New/Radical/Extreme/You Name It/Right. This resulted in two very agreeable days down in Bordeaux, with lots of interesting papers. Compared to the…
The Polls [caption id="attachment_12655" align="alignleft" width="300"] Support for the Major German Parties, Estimates and Predictions (Week 35, 2013)[/caption] Exactly three weeks before the 18th Bundestag election, it’s time for another look at the polls. This weekend brings six new entries: One late result from week 33 that was only published a week ago, three polls…