I’m currently in the process of digging deeper into what the AfD and their supporters do on Facebook and have collected almost eleven more months of posts. The emerging picture is rather clear. Overall, Lucke’s presence is still remarkable, but Petry is rapidly gaining ground.
I would not normally recommend acting on any of my predictions, because I have an amazing track-record of being wrong a long time in advance. But once in a blue moon, I get it right. In my WEP article on the AfD’s EP 2014 manifesto, I have pointed out that there was a rift between…
[caption id="attachment_15760" align="alignleft" width="300"] Lehrbuch Strukturgleichungsmodelle[/caption] Mein seit langem geplantes Lehrbuch “Strukturgleichungsmodelle” erscheint demnächst bei Springer VS. Viele politikwissenschaftliche Beispiele illustrieren die Anwendung gängiger Modelle auf Daten aus dem ESS und dem Allbus. Gezeigt wird jeweils, wie sich die Modellschätzung in Stata, MPlus und Lisrel realisieren läßt. Zu allen Beispielen ist die vollständige und kommentierte…
Worried about survey bias? We have updated our add-on (or ado) surveybias, which calculates our multinomial generalisation of the old Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy (2005) measure for survey bias. If you have any dichotomous or multinomial variable in your survey whose true distribution is known (e.g. from the census, electoral counts, or other official data),…
Update [su_box title="Publication"]This post has turned into a proper journal article (follow the link for an ungated pre-print) [bibtex file=ka.bib sort=year order=desc key=arzheimer-2017b][/su_box] Original 2015 post 35 years’ worth of Politbarometer data show that partisan dealignment in Germany has slowed down considerably over the last decade. One reason for this is the increase in average…
Meet one reviewer from hell. Or perhaps not
Why is partisan dealignment slowing down in Germany? One part of the puzzle is the spread and changing role of formal education. In recent years, dealignment has mostly been confined to the lower-education strata.
Update [su_box title="Publication"]This post has turned into a proper journal article (follow the link for an ungated pre-print) [bibtex file=ka.bib sort=year order=desc key=arzheimer-2017b][/su_box] Original 2015 post Almost a decade ago, I published an article with a cutesy title on the decline of party identification in Germany, of which I am inordinately proud. The main message…
… but then again, they don’t really care about the issue anyway. See my contribution on the LSE’s EUROPP blog for details, implications, T&C. Photo by dullhunk
The utterly erratic and ridiculously eclectic bibliography on far-right parties and their voters has been online for nearly five years now and contains just under 500 references. Obviously, it’s time for some semi-serious statistical analysis. To kick things off, I’m looking at the distribution of articles across journals, which is dominated by (surprise!) European and…