David Spiegelhalter on Risk, Knife-Crime and the Probability of Being Killed in London
He can explain to a lay public why a spade in knife-crime is not totally unlikely and does not necessarily indicate an increase in the murder rate
Blog has moved
Twelve months ago, I started a blog at wordpress.com. Half a year ago, I started re-publising its content here. Last week I decided that this was getting too tedious, installed my own copy of wordpress and transferred my stuff here. Onwards and upwards!
Dr Huber’s Sandwich shop
Slightly anxious researchers that suffer from correlated disturbances shuffle into that shop and ask for the massive 18 centimetre sandwich estimator.
Contextual Factors and the Extreme Right Vote in Western Europe, 1980-2002
In a recent paper on Contextual Factors and the Extreme Right Vote in Western Europe, 1980-2002. Immigration and unemployment rates are important, but their interaction with other political factors is complex. Replication data available.
Turnout, Lakatos, and Case Studies
I was slightly surprised that I would have the right to respond to that reply. Where does it stop?
Political Science Peer-Review Survey: 836 respondents and counting
With about 100 new respondents, yet another brilliant week for the Political Science Peer-Review Survey draws to a close. While the snowball is still rolling, and while we cannot know for certain because the survey is anonymous after all, we might soon reach a point of saturation: I have received a number of very friendly…
The Alternative Italian Job: Disbanding the Army that Never Was
The Guardian had a wonderful short article last week. Apparently, Italy invented a 300,000 strong army in the 1950s as part of the great game that was the Cold War. And apparently they assumed that the first thing the Soviet spies would watch out for were neither tanks nor barrackes, but an active bureaucracy (something…
A good week for the peer-review survey
On Monday, the Political Science Peer-Review Survey had 506 respondents. Between Tuesday and Friday, we sent out 1,100 new invitations. Five days and many contacts with helpful colleagues later the number stands at 626. Feel free to join them.
Political Science Peer-Review Survey: 500+ respondents
The title says it all: yesterday, respondents 500-506 took the Political Science Peer-Review Survey, which is obviously great. A neat detail is that so far, more than 60 current or previous editors of political science journals have taken part in the survey. Tomorrow, we will resume or email campaign (aimed at those who have published…
Christian Religiosity and Voting for West European Radical Right Parties
Does Christian religiosity reduce or increase the likelihood of a radical/extreme right vote in a West European context?This is the question Liz and I are trying to address in our latest paper