The new version of our Stata module surveybias has now appeared on SSC. From within Stata, simply run ssc install surveybias, all to install it (no surprise here). For the time being, the article on which the module is based has been ungated. Get it while it is free.
The very useful OUP blog has a Q&A session on polling accuracy with Jocelyn Evans and me: Polling accuracy: a Q&A with Kai Arzheimer and Joceyln Evans. Moreover, Oxford University Press has kindly ungated the Political Analysis paper on our New Multinomial Accuracy Measure (TM), so grab the PDF while it is free.
We have updated our Stata package surveybias, which estimates bias in pre-election polls and other surveys where the true distribution is known. A new feature facilitates the en masse comparison of surveys collected before an election. Also in this release: somewhat better documentation and toy data to get you started.
Interview mit der Deutschen Welle zur Einordnung der Dänischen Volkspartei und deren Rolle in einem möglichen Verbund europäischer Rechtsparteien. Foter.com / CC BY-SAInterview with Deutsche Welle on the Danish People’s Party and their potential role within an alliance of right-wing populist parties in Europe.
This weekend, the SPD held their party conference in Leipzig. In some alternate reality, this conference would have approved of the SPD/Green coalition agreement. On our plane, the party conference could be a turning point for the ongoing coalition talks. Or perhaps not. Also featuring: A ruse within a feint within a plot.
Interview mit der Deutschen Welle über das Bündnis von Front National und PVV (in German). Interview with Deutsche Welle on the emerging Wilders/Le Pen Alliance Roel Wijnants / Foter.com / CC BY-NC
I have (finally) made available a replication data set for Liz’s and my 2006 EJPR article on Political Opportunity Structures and the Extreme Right: doi:10.7910/DVN/23280
If you are a bit like me/bone lazy/easily distracted by lots of other interesting things, you could try to cover four of the five things students will actually remember the essentials of a one semester German politics class in about three seconds by mumbling “November 9”. If you are slightly more risk adverse, you could…
Slides (in German) for a talk I gave at the University of Zurich on the idea of a European set of value priorities. While preferences are very similar across Europe, with universalism and benevolence coming out top and self-enhancement ranking low, security is crucial for the post-communist societies in Central & Eastern Europe. I further…
Angela Merkel’s triumph in the 2013 election was historic, but it came at a price. I discuss the likely impact on Europe in an opinion piece for Quartz, the Atlantic’s business news journal.