Germany: The AfD’s (Moderate) Success in Perspective
Today, I’m guest blogging on the #EP2014 results at the LSE’s execellent EUROPOPP blog. Click here for a number of opinionated and short “expert reactions” to yesterdays’s train wreck election.
The Weirdest Campaign Poster Yet (Groundhog Day Edition)
Those old enough to remember that Bill Murray had a career before Lost in Translation (or to remember Bill Murray) will instantly recognise this scene: Punxsutawney Phil is predicting six more electoral cycles of political misery for Germany’s Liberal Democrats.
Interview with the Christian Science Monitor: A German neo-Nazi in the European Parliament?
Amidst the ongoing leadership crisis, financial doom and the possibility of a ban, Germany’s NPD is fighting a desperate European campaign. Here is the link to the interview. Photo by qousqous
Pretty Perplexing Pirates Posters
The Pirates are running a rather cheap electoral campaign: No faces (models or not) but only drawings in their trademark orange/blue tones. Their stinginess even extends to the meaning of their slogans. I was a bit thrown off by “Borders are so 80”, then discovered the small “er”, so borders are so 1980s, apparently. Well,…
More Silly Election Posters
The local Liberal Democrats never fail to amaze me. Just when I thought it could not get any better, I found another gem for my ever growing collection. [caption id="attachment_13253" align="alignright" width="225"] Local Campaigns: The Hour of Amateurs[/caption] “Höhenflug” is the act of (figuratively) ascending to some higher plane (not an imminent danger here) but…
How to Measure Survey Bias without Having Access to the Raw Data (Surveybias Example 2/3)
In this post (the second in a mini-series of posts on our Stata add-on surveybias), we demonstrate how to analyse survey bias in the absence of raw data, using our command surveybiasi.
The Local Liberal Democrats Illustrate Some German Idioms for Us
There may be a European election on, but around here, the big one is the local elections. In the plural: On my last count, I will have to vote for town mayor, town council, municipal mayor, municipal council, district council and perhaps even leader of the district council, though I’m not 100 per cent sure…
BBC interview on the AfD/UKIP link
This is what came out of a lengthy interview with the BBC’s Nina Lamparski on the AfD, Farage in Cologne, and all that jazz. Photo by Gage Skidmore
Analysing Bias in French Pre-Election Surveys with surveybias for Stata (example 1/3)
In a recent publication (Arzheimer & Evans 2014), we propose a new multinomial measure B for bias in opinion surveys. We also supply a suite of ado files for Stata, surveybias, which plugs into Stata’s framework for estimation programs and provides estimates for this and other measures along with their standard errors. This is the first instalment in a mini series of posts that show how our commands can be used with real-world data. Here, we analyse the quality of a single French pre-election poll.
A New Religious Cleavage In Austria?
ZEIT online fill their virtual pages with a piece on the plight of the Austrian Pastafarians, who strive for legal recognition by the state. Apparently the cult of the FSM has risen to such prominence that a ÖVP (Austrian Christian Democrats) politician felt obliged to tweet a picture of their party president shaking hands with…