13 new polls show some movement in April It is four and half months until the September election, and things are getting a little more interesting. Everyone around here is happy that Macron saved the EU and defeated populism in one fell swoop (or maybe not), but I still love a nice parochial state election. And we…
On the 108th day of polling … … my true love gave to me: two Dimap polls, two Forsa polls, two INSA polls, one Emnid poll, and one FGW poll. So the total number of polls in the database stands at 59 now. Not too shabby. However, three companies dominate the pool: Insa (11), Emnid…
What’s the matter with the AfD? Over the last couple of weeks, the mainstream media (or as the AfD would have it, the “lying press”) have begun to write off the AfD as past its sell-by day (btw, did you realise that we won the battle against populism when Wilders performed slightly less well than…
The other day, someone on twitter suggested that the polls on the upper margins of my latest model-based estimates of AfD support were conducted by the “notoriously AfD-friendly INSA company”. https://twitter.com/freifrauvonitze/status/845565084290158593 This view is not uncommon in Germany. INSA, who do polling for Germany’s premier tabloid Bild, want to prop up support for the AfD…
Yardena Schwartz has written a portrait of the AfD’s Frauke Petry for Newsweek, with some input and a couple of verbatim quotes from me. [contentcards url="https://www.newsweek.com/2017/03/17/frauke-petry-germany-afd-party-nationalism-564872.html"]
Over at Diário de Notícias, Jose Fialho Gouveia has published another article on Germany, Schulz, and all that jazz, once more with a couple of my cents added. By the way, don’t you just love the imagery of beer jug hefting German politicians? [contentcards url="http://www.dn.pt/mundo/interior/merkel-perde-tapete-vermelho-e-schulz-pode-mesmo-ganhar-5745729.html"] If you’re interested, here is the English transcript of our…
Eight new German polls Over the last fortnight, eight new polls have been published: two by Insa, two by Forsa, and one apiece by Dimap, Emnid, GMS, and FGW. For GMS, it is only the second poll conducted since the beginning of this year (a third one was published early in January, with fieldwork partly…
Life is stranger than fiction: Former BNP leader Nick Griffin says he hopes to emigrate to Hungary within ’the next six month’. Of course, he will be an ex-pat, not an immigrant there. Over at the LSE blog, Eric Kaufman explains why the fear of ’Islamization’ is driving populist right support, and what to do…
With just six months to go until the 2017 Bundestag election, this is perhaps the ideal time to reflect on the rather remarkable 2013 election. Perhaps there is also a very fine line between Political Science and Contemporary History, and the German electoral studies community has a particular gift to step exactly on that line…
With just under seven months to go until the German federal election, I have recently begun once more to pool the pre-election polls from seven major survey firms. Since January, when the date for the election was set and the Spitzenkandidaten were selected, results from 35 polls with a median sample size of about 1900…