An important part of my job is dealing with stuff that is both unpleasant and weird (no, I’m not talking about teaching evaluations). Much of what goes on in far-right politics these days used to be called “the lunatic fringe” but has stealthily moved into the political mainstream. The “manosphere”, a network of unabashedly anti-feminist…
As (West) European election years go, 2017 was quite something. The French party system changed beyond recognition. The radical right entered Germany’s national parliament for the first time. UKIP was wiped out, but May still managed to lose a comfortable majority. And very high fragmentation resulted in a coalition that looks improbable even by Dutch standards.
SCoRE is our multinational project that explores the link between local and regional living conditions on the one hand and radical right attitudes and behaviours in these four countries on the other. Sometimes, serendipity is really a thing. Because we had our individual-level data collection scheduled for this year anyway, we gained some unique insights into all four big Western European elections of 2017.
The notion of ‘place’ has become a central concern in research on the populist radical right (PRR), but scholars seem to have different things in mind when talking about how geography affects individual political attitudes. In our paper, we therefore aim to structure the debate on the impact of place and to understand exactly how place affects PRR attitudes (nativism, right-wing authoritarianism, and populism). Conceptually, we identify four potentially relevant aspects of ‘place’ that underpin much of the current literature: place-related attitudes (localism and resentment), place-specific living conditions, socio-demographic composition, and characteristics unique to a particular place, i.e., its local history and culture. We also discuss how these aspects are related and how they may interact. Empirically, we assess the relative importance of these four aspects of place for PRR sentiment in Germany, a country that is particularly well suited to this type of analysis. Using fine-grained geocoded survey data collected prior to the 2017 election, we find that (1) there is considerable spatial variation and clustering in PRR attitudes, (2) a place’s socio-demographic composition and (3) place resentment account for much of this, while (4) localism has weaker effects. We find (5) no relevant interaction between localism and place resentment, (6) no substantial evidence that mediation through place-related attitudes leads to an underestimation of the other aspects, and (7) no evidence for effects of the unique culture or history of the places we studied. Moreover, (8) location in the former GDR still has a substantial impact, whereas (9) other place-specific conditions (deprivation, demographic decline, migration, rurality) that could be addressed by policy interventions have no or rather weak effects. We conclude that PRR sentiment in ‘places that don’t matter’ results also, though by no means exclusively, from a lack of recognition.
@Article{arzheimer-bernemann-2023,
author = {Arzheimer, Kai and Bernemann, Theresa},
title = {'Place' Does Matter for Populist Radical Right Sentiment, but How?
Evidence from Germany},
journal = {European Political Science Review},
year = 2024,
volume = {16},
number = {2},
pages = {167-186},
abstract = {The notion of 'place' has become a central concern in research on
the populist radical right (PRR), but scholars seem to have
different things in mind when talking about how geography affects
individual political attitudes. In our paper, we therefore aim to
structure the debate on the impact of place and to understand
exactly how place affects PRR attitudes (nativism, right-wing
authoritarianism, and populism). Conceptually, we identify four
potentially relevant aspects of 'place' that underpin much of the
current literature: place-related attitudes (localism and
resentment), place-specific living conditions, socio-demographic
composition, and characteristics unique to a particular place,
i.e., its local history and culture. We also discuss how these
aspects are related and how they may interact. Empirically, we
assess the relative importance of these four aspects of place for
PRR sentiment in Germany, a country that is particularly well
suited to this type of analysis. Using fine-grained geocoded survey
data collected prior to the 2017 election, we find that (1) there
is considerable spatial variation and clustering in PRR attitudes,
(2) a place's socio-demographic composition and (3) place
resentment account for much of this, while (4) localism has weaker
effects. We find (5) no relevant interaction between localism and
place resentment, (6) no substantial evidence that mediation
through place-related attitudes leads to an underestimation of the
other aspects, and (7) no evidence for effects of the unique
culture or history of the places we studied. Moreover, (8) location
in the former GDR still has a substantial impact, whereas (9) other
place-specific conditions (deprivation, demographic decline,
migration, rurality) that could be addressed by policy
interventions have no or rather weak effects. We conclude that PRR
sentiment in 'places that don't matter' results also, though by no
means exclusively, from a lack of recognition.},
html = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/european-political-science-review/article/place-does-matter-for-populist-radical-right-sentiment-but-how-evidence-from-germany/7C639AAC5F6B1BC2F6324F7D57136827},
pdf = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/7C639AAC5F6B1BC2F6324F7D57136827/S1755773923000279a.pdf/place-does-matter-for-populist-radical-right-sentiment-but-how-evidence-from-germany.pdf},
doi = {10.1017/S1755773923000279}
}Accordingly, my colleagues have written up reports for France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK, complete with beautiful maps. Who does not like maps?
But perhaps you’re pressed for time or not sure if you really want to read four (fairly short) reports? With the European Parliamentary elections on the horizon, I made a short explainer/teaser video about them to bring you up to speed in just over two minutes. I have a hunch that afterwards, you will want to read all four pieces.
Back in 2001, the British General Election Study contained a (presumably open-ended) question asking Britons to name the “ most important problem facing the country”. A whopping 0.4 per cent of the sample came up with something along the lines of “Britain’s relationship with Europe”. So much for the eternal struggle going all the way…
It is a warm but grey and gloomy weekend in Germany, so here are three links I enjoyed: In case you were wondering whether Trump is a) evil, b) senile or c) a master strategist: here is a piece arguing that c) is unlikely, though a) and b) could easily be true at the same…
Last weekend, AfD leader Alexander Gauland gave a lecture at a “winter school” organised by the Institut für Staatspolitik (IfS). The IfS is a far-right think whose state aim it is to form the future elite of far-right leaders. If you think that leader of Germany’s biggest opposition party being part of such a thing…
What is the “winter school” for Germany’s New Right? This weekend, Alexander Gauland, co-leader of the AfD, will give a lecture at the annual “winter school”, a weekend seminar that is organised by the “Institut für Staatspolitik” (IfS). The IfS is a Wannabe-Nouvelle-Droite think tank based in Schnellroda, a tiny village in Saxony-Anhalt. Its mastermind…
An Economist study finds that the quality of democracy is highest in Australia, Canada, and Scandinavia. No big surprise here. Time to move? You may have heard that a prominent member of the AfD was physically attacked in Bremen, which the AfD managed to put all over social media. The police say the initial account…
Andre Poggenburg, a prominent hardliner from Saxony-Anhalt, has left the AfD. He has already founded a new party. What does that mean for the AfD and German politics in general? I’ve made a short explainer video. Or, if you’re not the visual type, you can read an old-fashioned post on the latest breakaway from the…
Das Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz hat sich entschieden, die Alternative für Deutschland als Prüf- und den “Flügel” sowie die Junge Alternative als Verdachtsfälle zu betrachten. Zu den politischen Reaktionen und wahrscheinlichen Folgen berichtet das Handelsblatt – mit etwas Input von mir zu den Auswirkungen auf die Wählerschaft und das Machtgleichgewicht innerhalb der AfD. [contentcards url="https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/alternative-fuer-deutschland-afd-will-gegen-pruefung-des-verfassungsschutzes-vorgehen-/23869714.html" target="_blank"]